Trump yafashe icyemezo kigiye kuzahaza ubukungu n’ubucuruzi bw’u Buhinde kubera Uburusiya

Icyemezo cya Perezida wa Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika, Donald Trump, cyo gushyiraho umusoro wa 25% ku bicuruzwa bituruka mu Buhinde, gishobora guteza igihombo gikomeye ku bukungu bw’u Buhinde ndetse no ku byoherezwa mu mahanga, nk’uko abahanga mu by’ubukungu babitangaza.

Nubwo Trump yatangaje uyu musoro, hari n’ibihano byiyongera kuri uyu musoro wemejwe, ariko biracyari urujijo uko ibihano bifatika bizaba bingana.

Mu butumwa yashyize kuri Truth Social ku wa Gatatu, Trump yavuze ko ibi bihano bizatangira kubahirizwa ku itariki ya 1 Kanama, nk’igihano ku Buhinde bukomeje kugura peteroli n’intwaro mu Burusiya “mu gihe isi yose ishishikajwe no guhagarika ibikorwa byo kwica muri Ukraine”.

Abasesenguzi bavuga ko ibisobanuro birambuye by’ibi bihano bizaba ingenzi cyane kugira ngo hamenyekane ingaruka nyakuri z’icyo cyemezo ku bukungu.

Aditi Nayar, impuguke mu bukungu akaba n’umuyobozi ushinzwe iby’ubusesenguzi muri kompanyi y’ishoramari ICRA, yagize ati:
“Uyu musoro mushya wongeweho ibihano binini ugenzurwa na Leta ya Amerika ni munini kurusha uko twari twabyiteze, kandi ushobora kuba inzitizi ikomeye ku mikurire y’ubukungu bw’u Buhinde. Icyo bizatwara byose kizaterwa n’ingano y’ibi bihano.”

ICRA yari iherutse kugabanya ibyiringiro by’izamuka ry’umusaruro mbumbe w’igihugu (GDP) w’u Buhinde muri uyu mwaka w’ingengo y’imari, ibivanaho 6.5% ibishyira kuri 6.2% bitewe n’ingaruka mbi z’izamuka ry’ayo makoro.

Ikigo cy’ishoramari cya Nomura na cyo cyatangaje ko aya makoro “azagira ingaruka mbi ku mikurire y’ubukungu” kandi ko GDP y’u Buhinde ishobora kugabanuka 0.2% bitewe n’iri tangazo.

Isoko ry’imari mu Buhinde ryahise ribigaragaza, rigabanuka ku isoko ry’imigabane ubwo ubucuruzi butangiraga uwo munsi.

Nilesh Shah, ushinzwe igenamigambi muri kimwe mu bigo by’imari, yagize ati:
“Isoko ryari ryiteze ko impande zombi ziza kugera ku masezerano y’ubucuruzi, kuko inyungu z’igihe kirekire z’u Buhinde na Amerika zihuza.”

Mu mezi ashize, u Buhinde na Amerika byagiranye ibiganiro byinshi ku masezerano y’ubucuruzi, ndetse i Delhi igabanya imisoro ku bicuruzwa nka whisky ya Bourbon n’amapikipiki mu rwego rwo kunoza umubano. Nyamara, Amerika iracyafite icyuho cy’ubucuruzi cya miliyari $45 hagati yayo n’u Buhinde, Trump yifuza kugabanya.

Umusoro wa 25% wongeweho ibihano byiyongera uzashyira u Buhinde ku rwego rubi kurusha ibindi bihugu byo muri Aziya nka Vietnam na China, “ibihugu bihanganye n’u Buhinde mu guhatanira ishoramari no kwihutisha inganda”, nk’uko Rahul Ahluwalia wo mu kigo cy’ubushakashatsi Foundation for Economic Development yabibwiye BBC.

Amakoro yaciwe ku bicuruzwa by’Abashinwa yagabanutse avuye kuri 145% agera kuri 30% nyuma y’ibiganiro byabereye i Geneva no i London. Amerika na China bahawe kugeza ku ya 12 Kanama ngo bagere ku masezerano y’igihe kirekire. Trump kandi yasinye amasezerano na Vietnam muri Nyakanga, yemera gushyiraho umusoro wa 20%, uvuye ku wa 46% wari watangajwe mbere muri Mata.

Bityo, kuba amakoro y’u Buhinde atakiri hasi ugereranyije n’aya Vietnam na China, ntibyitezwe ko u Buhinde buzongera kwakira inganda n’amashami y’ubucuruzi yava mu bihugu nka China bijyanye no kohereza imyenda n’ibindi bicuruzwa mu mahanga.

Agneshwar Sen, inzobere mu by’ubucuruzi wo muri EY India, yagize ati:
“Niba uyu musoro ushyizweho ukomeza, uzagira ingaruka zitaziguye ku byiciro by’ibicuruzwa nk’ibikomoka ku buhinzi bwo mu mazi, imiti, imyenda, uruhu n’imodoka, aho ubucuruzi hagati y’ibi bihugu bwari bukomeye.”

Iri tangazo rya Trump ryateje impaka n’impungenge mu banyamakuru b’ubukungu, abohereza ibicuruzwa hanze ndetse n’abayobozi b’inganda mu Buhinde.

Harsha Vardhan Agarwal, Perezida w’ihuriro ry’abikorera FICCI, yagize ati:
“Nubwo iki cyemezo giteye impungenge kandi gifite ingaruka ku bucuruzi bwacu bwo kohereza ibicuruzwa mu mahanga, twizeye ko kiriya cyemezo kizaba igihe gito, kandi ko amasezerano y’ubucuruzi ya burundu azagerwaho vuba.”

Dr Ajay Sahai, uyobora ihuriro ry’abohereza ibicuruzwa mu mahanga mu Buhinde, yavuze ko aya makoro mashya azateza ibiganiro bishya ku giciro hagati y’abaguzi b’Abanyamerika n’abacuruzi b’Abahinde.

Amakoro asanzwe aba ari imisoro ku bicuruzwa byinjira mu gihugu. Iyo yazamutse, abohereza ibicuruzwa hanze bahura n’ibihombo kuko ibicuruzwa byabo bihenda abaguzi, bikagabanya isoko, bikaba byanabasaba kugabanya ibiciro kugira ngo barambe ku isoko.

Ministeri y’Ubucuruzi y’u Buhinde yatangaje ko iri gusuzuma “ingaruka” z’iri tangazo.

U Buhinde bwongeye kwemeza ko bushishikajwe no kugera ku masezerano y’ubucuruzi yunganira impande zombi, ariko busobanura ko bushyira imbere “inyungu n’iterambere ry’abahinzi, ba rwiyemezamirimo n’ibigo bito n’ibiciriritse (MSMEs)” — ibi bigaragaza ko ibijyanye n’ubuhinzi, amata n’ibindi bibazo bya politiki bikomeye ari byo byahungabanyije ibiganiro.

Ishyaka ritavuga rumwe n’ubutegetsi, Congress, ryahise rinenga bikomeye guverinoma. Mu butumwa bashyize kuri X (Twitter), Congress yagize iti:
“Nubwo Minisitiri w’Intebe Modi yigeze gukorera Trump ubukangurambaga muri Amerika mu 2019, ndetse akamuhobera nk’inshuti ya kera, Trump amwishyuye amushyiriraho imisoro ihanitse. Ni igihombo gikomeye mu bya dipolomasi.”

Mark Linscott, wahoze ari intumwa ya Leta ya Amerika mu biganiro by’ubucuruzi, yavuze ko kuba Trump yahuje ibijyanye n’ibihano ku Buhinde no ku bucuti bwarwo na Russia “byarushijeho kugora ibintu”.

Yagize ati:
“Byongereye urundi rwego rw’ibiganiro, kandi ntabwo birasobanuka neza uko ibi bibazo bishya bizajya mu masezerano y’ubucuruzi.”

U Buhinde bwakomeje kwirinda gucika ku Burusiya kuva intambara muri Ukraine yatangira, bwitwaje ko bukenera peteroli ku giciro gito kugira ngo abaturage babwo batagira ikibazo. N’ubwo bwagabanije ibyo bugura mu Burusiya, ubucuti bwa kera buracyahari.

Linscott yongeyeho ati:
“Nubwo hari ibyo byago, impande zombi zifite inyungu nini zo kongera ibiganiro no kugera nibura ku masezerano y’agateganyo. Amerika ni isoko rinini ry’u Buhinde ku bicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga, aho ubucuruzi bw’impande zombi bugeze kuri miliyari $190, kandi intego ni ukuyigeza kuri miliyari $500.”

Trump ashyira ikimenyetso cye kuri buri masezerano, kandi kugira ngo bikunde n’u Buhinde, byasabye ko Minisitiri Modi ubwe yegera Trump ngo bavugane ku buryo bwihariye ku ngingo zisigaye — cyane cyane ku bijyanye na peteroli, intwaro n’ishoramari mu Amerika. “Ariko ibyo ntibigeze biba,” nk’uko Linscott yabisobanuye.

Nubwo Trump yakunze kuvuga ko u Buhinde ari “inshuti nziza”, yakunze kunenga imisoro ihanitse y’u Buhinde. Ku wa Kane mu gitondo, yanditse kuri Truth Social ati:
“Simbyitayeho ibyo u Buhinde bukora na Russia. Nibafatanye ibyo bukungu byabo bipfuye, sinzababarira. Ntitugira ubucuruzi bwinshi n’u Buhinde, kuko imisoro yabo iri mu ya mbere mu bihano ku isi.”

Nubwo ibi bituma umwuka uba mubi, ibiganiro hagati ya Amerika n’u Buhinde birakomeje muri Kanama, aho itsinda ryaturutse muri Amerika riteganyijwe kugera mu Buhinde mu kwezi gutaha ngo hatangwe umurongo ku masezerano arambuye.

Hari icyizere ko amakoro azagabanuka kandi ko iyi misoro ya 25% ishobora kuzaba iy’igihe gito, kugeza igihe amasezerano y’ubucuruzi arambye azaba arangiye. Impande zombi zashyizeho umupaka w’impeshyi ngo abe ari bwo bigera ku masezerano.

Ariko uko byagenda kose, nubwo byazagenda neza, amakoro ashobora kuguma hagati ya 15% na 20%, “ikintu cy’ubwigunge kubera aho ibiganiro byari bigeze”, nk’uko Nomura yabisobanuye.

Nubwo ingaruka zishobora kugabanyuka, kubera ko ubukungu bw’u Buhinde bushingiye cyane ku isoko ryo imbere mu gihugu, Nomura yemeza ko icyemezo cya Trump gishobora “kongera amahirwe yo koroshya ingamba za politiki y’ifaranga” no gutuma Banki Nkuru y’u Buhinde igabanya inyungu z’amabanki mu rwego rwo kurengera izamuka ry’ubukungu.